My advice on the BC election

Given that I haven't felt inclined to post anything since the end of the coalition debacle back in December, I'm not sure if anyone will read this, but I hope it will do some good.

1. If you live in a swing riding, vote BC Liberal. We can't risk the damage that would be inflicted on the province by an NDP government, and for all their missteps over the second term, the Campbell government should be re-elected.

2. If you live in either a safe Liberal or NDP riding with a Conservative candidate, seriously consider voting Conservative.

You can thus send a message of disapproval to the BC Liberals for the carbon tax, inaction on health care reform and abysmal care for seniors (which my family experienced first hand with the decline and death of my grandparents), for the pay raises to public sector unions, senior bureaucrats and MLAs, cuts to crown prosecutors, for the internal corruption within the party, etc., WITHOUT risking an NDP government.

3. If you're a right leaning voter, DO NOT use the Green Party as a protest vote. To do so only sends a signal to the BC Liberals to keep moving in the opposite direction.

4. If you live in my riding (Abbotsford-Mission), vote for Randy Hawes. Neither 1 nor 2 apply in that case, and Randy is a good man who deserves your support.

5. If you live in Delta-South, vote to defeat Wally Oppal. Given the surge in gang violence, this province needs an Attorney-General who actually believes in mandatory minimum sentences rather than paying lip service to them on the eve of an election after years of outspoken opposition.

6. Do not vote for the BC Liberal candidate in Victoria-Beacon Hill.

7. Most importantly, vote for First Past the Post over STV.

An NDP government would cause damage for one term. An insanely complicated electoral system that:

-employs a mathematical formula that requires computers to count votes
-dilutes local representation
-rewards parties for running fewer candidates
-will benefit fringe parties with minimal support and place the balance of power in their hands
-will almost certainly cause chronic instability
-will require backroom deals to form what would likely be short-lived governments

threatens to cause damage for decades to come.

As flawed as the current system is, STV is much worse.

Amazing

After months of endless speculation, wavering and indecision, Mats Sundin is coming to town.

I'm shocked that this is actually happening, and I'm still skeptical about how much this is going to help, but it can't hurt.

Sorry folks, that's not up to you

Three Facebook friends, who happen to be Liberals, have joined a group called "Stephen Harper Must Resign as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada."

To give you an example of the makeup of the group, here's a sample of the related groups:

• Canada needs a more representative government!
  
• I'm a part of the 62% majority | Je fais partie de la majorité de 62 %
  
• Canadians for a Progressive Coalition - Coalition Progressiste Canadienne
  
• I Support Public Campaign Financing
  

Oh, and this one as well.

Given the polls, I can certainly understand why Liblocdippers want Harper gone. Being on the verge of getting their asses kicked by the guy is certainly an incentive.

But his tenure as Conservative Leader is naturally up to Conservatives to decide.

What annihilation might look like

For the record, this is what you get when you plug the Compas numbers in to the Hill and Knowlton seat projector:

Funny

I was looking for the pro-coalition website and typed in 62percentmajority.com, and this is what I got:
The real URL is 62percentmajority.ca
A fellow Conservative supporter is obviously having some fun with this.

Timeless words

"I am a Canadian,
free to speak without fear,
free to worship in my own way,
free to stand for what I think right,
free to oppose what I believe wrong,

or free to choose those
who shall govern my country.

This heritage of freedom
I pledge to uphold
for myself and all mankind."

Prime Minister John Diefenbaker
July 1, 1960

Blue juggernaut

Compas came out with a poll today that must strike sheer terror into the hearts of Liberals and Dippers:

Conservative 51
Liberal 20
NDP 10
Bloc 8

It's a 6 point wider margin than Mulroney in '84, with NDP support cut in half. That's not just a landslide, it's annihilation.

No matter how great the Prime Minister's sin of "governing as if he had a majority" may have been, the electorate is reacting with righteous fury to the opposition's crass attempt to usurp his office in the midst of the greatest economic crisis of our time.

But the Prime Minister has given them the gift of time. They can slowly and carefully step back from the brink, claim some kind of victory from Harper's concessions and let the man do his job while they get their act together.

Which I now expect is precisely what will happen. These people can't possibly fail to read the writing on the wall.

Game Over

If this coalition bullshit isn't over yet already, the polls indicate that it's only a matter a matter of time before the offending parties scurry desperately in the opposite direction.

Ipsos:

Conservative 46
Liberal 23
NDP 13

37 for the Coalition, 60 opposed.

EKOS:

Conservative 44
Liberal 24.1
NDP 14.1

Harper 47 - Coalition 34 on who's better to handle the economy (only 53% of NDP supporters went with the Coalition)

Tories up by over 21 points in Ontario.

56 for either prorogation or an election to 28 for the Coalition.

Bottom line:
They wanted to destroy Harper, and now the electorate appears poised to destroy them.

They should thank their lucky stars he gave them a few weeks to back away and save face.

Interesting

The Facebook status of a Liberal I know:

-------- is calling on Stephane Dion to step aside immediately for the good of the Liberal Party and Canada. John McCallum or Ralph Goodale for interim leader!

Also, a defeated Liberal candidate I know has stated support for prorogation.

The cracks appear to be starting to form.

I'm sure Layton will be devastated if and when his big chance slips through his hands.

In case you missed it

On Dion's speech

Of course I'm speaking as a partisan Conservative, but to me Dion's response was predictably pathetic.

The Prime Minister certainly should have had something more specific to say, but having him presented back to back with Dion is probably a good thing. He just clearly comes across as the one who actually looks and sounds like a leader.

And I'm not saying that merely out of partisanship. My gut tells me that Ignatieff would have performed a whole lot better than Dion had he been in his shoes.

On the PM's speech

I've gotta say, it would have helped if the Prime Minister actually explained what he was going to do now. It was his moment to make his care directly, and I think he let it slip away.

Bullshit

From the Globe and Mail:

The separatist Bloc Québécois was part of secret plotting in 2000 to join a formal coalition with the two parties that now make up Stephen Harper's government, according to documents obtained by The Globe and Mail.

The scheme, designed to propel current Conservative minister Stockwell Day to power, undermines the Harper government's line this week that it would never sign a deal like the current one between the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc.

You know, I don't see anything there that says or suggests that Harper had any role in that or was even privy to it. If the Globe and Mail had checked its facts, it would realize that Harper was not even an MP at the time.